Manilkara Zapota also blooms inconspicuously with white flowers, that are of bell-like, with a six-lobed corolla. This tree consists of glossy medium green leaves, which are alternate, elliptic to ovate with an entire margin. Chikoo trees have a tendency to grow about 5 – 20 m tall when cultivated at your home garden. With its native origin to Central America, Mexico & West Indies, but find its wide distribution throughout Southeast Asian countries. These are cultivated for their edible sweet fruits. Manilkara Zapota commonly known as Chikoo trees are long-living evergreen trees.read moreĬiti forecasts a near-50% probability of global recession.Ĭiti's Economic Surprise Index, measuring the degree to which the data is beating or missing forecasts, has fallen sharply for both Europe and the United States.Chikoo tree (Manilkara Zapota) is a high valued ornamental tree. recession odds for the next 12 months at around 35%. economy tipping into recession over the next year - versus 15% earlier - while Morgan Stanley places U.S. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 30% chance of the U.S. Several big banks are flagging increased likelihood of recession. Spreads on bonds rated triple-C and lower - facing the highest default risk - have risen above 1,000 bps, a significant sign of stress. junk bonds' risk premia would average 600-650 bps, and peak above 700 bps.Īt current spreads around 500 bps, the index "is about 70% on our way to pricing in a certainty of a recessionary outcome", BofA analysts wrote. In euro markets, yields have soared to 6.8% from 2.8% (.MERHE00).Īccording to BofA, if recession becomes a consensus view, U.S. companies have almost doubled this year to 8.51% (.MERH0A0). 4/CARING ABOUT JUNKĬorporate sector stress, especially at the lower end of the credit spectrum, is another warning signal.įinancing costs for sub-investment grade, or "junk" U.S. In short, if you think the economy's tanking, dump copper and buy gold.īrent crude has also slid 10% in June and is set for its biggest monthly fall since November. 3/ COUNTING COMMODITIESĬopper, a well-known growth bellwether, has slid 7% this week - its sharpest weekly drop since the March 2020 meltdown.ĭubbed "Dr Copper" because of its record as a boom-bust indicator, the metal has also seen its price ratio to gold hit an 18-month low.
"Global PMIs sliding towards 50 is another sign that the post-COVID boom is behind us," Mizuho's Asher said. Sub-50 readings coincided with recessions in 20. PMIs too have fallen, with manufacturing decelerating sharply in June. Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMI) are reliable predictors of manufacturing, services, goods inventories, new orders, and therefore future growth.Ī global composite PMI index from JPMorgan was the weakest since July 2020 in May, with the new orders component only just above the 50 level dividing activity expansion from contraction. Money markets, having slashed bets on how high the Fed will take interest rates, now expect rates to fall about 20 bps between April and July 2023. "Chances the Fed can land on that narrow strip of safe ground are very remote," Mizuho senior economist Colin Asher said. The concern is that the Fed, facing 8%-plus inflation, will take monetary policy into what economists call restrictive territory, slowing economic activity. Treasury yield curve has a track record of predicting recessions, especially when two-year yields rise above 10-year maturities.Īt around 5 basis points (bps), the spread between the two segments has flitted in and out of negative territory recently, so recession watchers are paying attention. Here is what some closely-watched indicators are saying about recession risks. The World Bank currently expects 2022 global growth at 2.9%. "There are also growing signs of economic weakness coming earlier than expected." "Inflation is still rising and that means the Fed will hike more and move more rapidly, which will put downward pressure on the economy, so that's adding to recession fears," said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principle Global Investors.
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